Protecting our planet

Protecting our planet

Astronomers, using NSF and NASA facilities, are well poised to detect and predict the trajectories of Earth-threatening asteroids in the future.

Potentially devastating asteroid collision in 2040 not likely to happen

A team of astronomers from the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy (IfA) have confirmed that the chance of asteroid 2011 AG5 impacting Earth in 2040 is no longer a significant risk — prompting a collective sigh-of-relief; previously, scientists estimated that the risk of this 140-meter-diameter (about the length of two American football fields) asteroid colliding with the Earth – and releasing about 100 megatons of energy — was as high as one in 500

A Gemini Observatory release reports that if this object were to collide with the Earth it would have released about 100 megatons of energy, several thousand times more powerful than the atomic bombs that ended the Second World-War.

Statistically, a body of this size could impact the Earth on average every 10,000 years.

The updated trajectory of 2011 AG5, based on the Gemini data, has a factor of 60 less uncertainty than the previous observations due in part to the increase in sampling points in the asteroid’s orbit. The original discovery was made from images obtained with the NASA-sponsored Catalina Sky Survey on Mt. Lemmon in Arizona.

According to a press release issued by JPL, while this new result has reduced the interest in 2011 AG5, the experience gained by studying this object and conducting a contingency deflection analysis has demonstrated that astronomers, using NSF and NASA facilities, are well poised to detect and predict the trajectories of Earth-threatening asteroids in the future.

(Published 26 December 2012)

The data for this study are being published by the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

It is good to know that we have people checking what is going on out there. The question is will they always keep us in the loop?

Re: Protecting our planet

I doubt very much if we will be kept in the loop - whether it is 2040 or this year. There'd be too many suicides or family murders.
And it does give peace of mind I think!